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Out of 10,000 attempts
Oklahoma St. 1187
Iowa St. 177
Kansas St. 119
West Virginia 1
I believe KU was a bit over 40% last year. To put it in perspective the Big XII will be the third least competitive conference race in the nation according to KenPom. Plenty could happen early in the conference season to change things but right now the Big XII does not look really competitive.
I'm curious about how a balanced conference schedule has affected simulations like this. I'd have to ask Ken, but I'd assume it removes a good bit of the luck and scheduling factors and increases the confidence factor in his predictions.
It was funny because when the Big XII went to that I remember at TFS having fans of Big XII South schools claiming that it would hurt KU as if we had always benefited from scheduling. Their theory was that the South generally had more good teams than the North (even though IIRC the all-time North vs South records were pretty even). That was pure crap really. What the balanced schedule does for KU is ensure that everyone has to come play at AFH and take an almost assured loss. For whomever the "best" team in a balanced schedule league is I don't see it doing anything but being a benefit for that squad.
As for the KenPom predictions they are schedule specific. That is why UNC is so low in the ACC, lower than their ranking would suggest relative to the teams ahead of them.
Funny that in 10,000 sims, TCU and TT didn't win once and WVU only won once.
Yeah, the funny part for WVU is that Huggins was bitching at the start of the year that they were not getting the respect they deserved. That 1 conference title has them with a .01% chance of winning the league. This is honestly about as non-competitive as I have seen the Big XII in a while. Even in years where KU had dominant teams there were others who were better and could challenge for the league crown on their own merits. The really strange thing is that the Big XII is still at top 4 or 5 league in most models. College is just way down this year.
That's what I was thinking as I watched a pretty good/not great Gonzaga team take down a fifth Big 12 team NYE in Stillwater. I mean there is a possibility that at some point during the year that KU will be the only ranked team in conference. I know a lot of people are high on OSU, but I maintain I will be shocked to see them better than 3rd in the league when its all said and done. Travis Ford sucks. I realize WVU have had better players in their own right, but they couldn't ask for a better first year in the league. As for TT, I actually like what their coach has been able to do with no talent. Good hire and may improve over time.
I think that the combination of some guys staying for 2011-2012 who could have gone to the 2011 draft and the exceedingly poor quality of the 2012 high school class has really made for no great teams, few very good teams, and a large middle tier of good teams who can beat the very good teams and lose to the bad ones. The Big 12 follows this model with only one "very good" team, as do all the conferences outside of the Big Ten, really, which has several teams from the "very good" tier. It would not surprise me at all if this is a year without any one seeds in the Final Four.
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