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Very preliminary but I don't mind it too much.
I do think the UNC thing is played out with the committee. That being said at least they didn't dump MU in KC for that media circus.
VCU is interesting but they have some work to do. KenPom has crashed from traffic and I am an elitist who won't get stats elsewhere (or I might be lazy) but I don't think they shoot it like their 2010 squad did. Plus if we ran into them we would get a week to prep. I am not sure it is a tougher game than Michigan really and you have to play someone.
Bilas said it's no secret that Kansas plays tight against mid-majors.
If we play UNC, will this be the first time in the Self era where we were favored to win?
Live to love, love to live
I do think we sometimes play tight against mid-majors but I don't think that is a uniquely KU thing. Duke has lost some games to mid-major types as well. If anyone wants to talk about a school with mental blocks they need to look at G-Town frankly.
Just to avoid the drama on Sunday, I'm pulling for Villanova... and yes, I am the artist formerly known as beatmu. So, I am on the 'ABC' plan as it were.
I am kind of this way too though mostly because UNC is probably a good bit better than Nova. I think that the whole KU/UNC thing is just played out though. I also feel like the NCAA really looks to create drama with these matchups. Then again I would rather have that than WSU/Pitt as my 8-9 as Pitt has been through the wars. I would also probably prefer the UNC/Nova pair over the MU/CSU pair as well as there would be even more drama with that going on.
Given my options I would probably want the NC State/Temple pair but I am not that committed to it.
I find the bracket overall to be pretty fair. The West is the only region that looks easier but I am not sure it is substantially so.
I would much rather play North Carolina than Villanova because the matchup of styles just favors us so much. North Carolina's "vast improvement" since switching to the smaller lineup is so ridiculously overplayed by ESPN. Since they've switched (following the loss to Miami) in February, they've lost to Duke twice and Miami yesterday, no bad losses. However, they've beaten Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Maryland on the road, Virginia, NC State, and Florida State at home, and Florida State and Maryland on a neutral court. So, their only win in that time over an NCAA Tournament team is a home win over NC State? Puh-lease.
Villanova is NOT as talented and their efficiency ratings bear that out, BUT they play a trapping, pressing style that's not good for us AND they have beaten Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, and Syracuse (yes, all at home).
North Carolina no longer bothers me (I had bought into the hype of them having "gone small" when I wrote an article on potential matchups last week).
Michigan and VCU, on the other hand, terrify me. We've grown a lot as a team and overcome a lot, but the two things we have yet to really correct are: stopping dribble penetration and handling the ball. Michigan has a great point guard who is capable of wrecking havoc on us, and VCU excels at jumping passing lanes and trapping and forcing bad decisions.
All of that having been said, Self doesn't typically lose in the first game of a weekend, and giving us a week to prepare for their trapping style or Burke's driving style gives me some increased confidence. And, after that game, I am not really worried about either the Regional Final or the Final Four matchups. The high seeds that would give us the most trouble (Louisville, Duke, Michigan State, New Mexico, and Ohio State) are all on the other side.
Couldn't believe it when I saw because there were 3 teams that I didn't want KU to get in their bracket and all 3 land squarely in KU's way with UNC, Michigan, and VCU. That said I think UNC is soft and if that's the second match up I think KU handles Roy and again.
Outside of KU I think Ok State received a horrible draw. Oregon a 12 seed and only a couple hours from Eugene? Ouch. Then they get St. Louis likely. Tough draw.
Yeah, Okie Lite got hosed. First of all, lots of Oregon alums in the Bay Area, so the 12 seed got a gift. Second, no way CU deserves a ten seed while Oregon is 12th. That's just crazy for any five seed to get Oregon in their first game, but especially when it becomes sort of a home game for the 12 seed. That game should have been in Salt Lake City instead of in the Bay Area, and the same could be said of the UNLV/Cal game.
So when I took a pass at filling out a bracket I came up with lots and lots of chalk. There just did not strike me as a lot of being a lot of really poorly seeded teams out there. After applying my personal rules (KU wins it all every year, MU loses in the first round if they are in because otherwise any money I win would be tainted) I just did not see a huge number of upsets happening.
A lot of games were really close to call but in most cases the numbers and matchup seemed to favor the higher seeded squad.
The Marquette pod had me stumped though. I don't like Marquette to do a lot. But I am nearly at a toss up between Bucknell and Butler. Not being confident about that game made me put Marquette through to hopefully not blow the whole pod.
I like Belmont of Arizona, ISU over Notre Dame (will be a three point chuck fest which I think ISU will win).
I like Pittsburgh to take out Zaga in the second round (though generally they make me nervous in the tourney) and think Creighton/Duke is a real toss up so I went with Creighton because that would be more fun to watch.
Other than that it was a boring bracket to fill out.
I'm still playing with my bracket, but tend to agree -- it's not rational, but when everyone predicts upsets o' plenty, as they seem to be predicting this year, I always figure the conventional wisdom will fall on its face.
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I haven't done the research, but if I had to bet if you went straight chalk most of the time you would do better than those who pick a lot of upsets. Every year people say this is the year with a bunch of upsets, and yes there are always a few, but more often than not the higher seeds make it through.
Depends on your scoring system. My big bracket uses "round plus seed" scoring. So picking upsets is valuable if you pick the right ones.
I'm so glad I don't pick brackets. :-)
Can you break that down? How many points per round? Do you then add the seed each win or just early rounds?
You get standard scoring for all the rounds. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 for each one you get right. You also get to add the seed to getting it correct. So if I pick an 11 seed to beat a 5 and they do then I would get 12 points for that game. If you took the 5 seed you would get 6 points.
And I am with most that I don't like picking brackets. I do it only with my family anymore and mostly out of tradition.
OK boys, here we go
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